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College of Business Administration

Depart= ment of Economics

Business Cycles & Forecasting

Lectur= er: O. Mikhail

ECO 64= 33-A001

Summer= 2005

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TERM PAPER OUTLINE

The= objectives of the term paper are,<= /o:p>

§ = To wri= te a paper that uses the applied methods presented in the class to forecast a business variable of interest, and

§ = To giv= e the student a hand-on experience in analyzing data, and

§ = To familiarize the student with the data-collection process and its presentati= on, and

§ = To lea= rn how to write a term paper.

Your term paper should address forecasting a variable that relates closely to your field of study (economics, finance, management, marketing or accounting) or your work place.<= /p>

Pick a variable of interest. Why is this va= riable interesting to work on? What is the benefit from forecasting it? Address the six points of a successful forecasting: decision environment, forecast obje= ct, forecast statement, forecast horizon, information set, methods and the parsimony principle. Write a review of literature detailing how this variab= le was modeled and forecasted. Expand on the ideas that you read, present new argument(s), model(s), etc… i.e., write an original paper. Do not cop= y or just summarize what you read in the literature. Expand on what you read. Challenge the ideas/views that are presented in the literature. Appropriate= ly model the variable of interest and forecast it using the statistical methods presented in the class. Using statistical statements provide strong convinc= ing arguments of why your model and forecasts are superior. The most valuable advice is; pick a variable that you have interest in and that matches your educational or work background.

Each term paper should be organized as foll= ows,

1) Cover Page: The title of your tem paper and your name.

2) Introduction: Why is the topic interesting for you? Why= is it interesting to be studied? Why is this topic important? Summarize the revie= w of the literature (all articles that you read and are related to your topic (W= ho wrote what and when?).

3) Plan: What is the plan of your term paper? What= is it that you are proposing to do? How will you conduct/approach/execute your pl= an? What are the steps that you will take?

4) Analysis: In this section you report and show the d= etails of your proposed plan. Using statistical analysis, you report the results a= nd discuss their implications. Which method you used? Why? Advantages? Disadvantages?

5) Conclusions: What did you learn from this study? What = does a reader learn from reading your term paper? The message? What ought to be do= ne? What are the business implications – if any?

6) Appendix: wherein you report the following,

§ = All information used in the term paper should be mentioned, such as source of d= ata, books references’, academic papers, web pages titles and html address= es.

§ = All Fi= gures and Tables produced in the Analysis part of the paper should be here in the Appendix.

The term paper should be typed, doub= le spaced at a maximum length of 15 = pages (including graphs and tables). The term paper must be submitted (pri= nted copy and an e-mail attachment) by Thursday, June 23, 2005, 6:00 p.m. The e-= mail attachment should be titled as follow ECO6433-YOURNAME.DOC if you are a Microsoft Word user, or ECO6433-YOURNAME.WPD if = you are using Corel WordPerfect.

Also, submit your term paper using http://www.turnitin.com

The instructions on how to submit your term paper to turnitin are provided at the class web page.

Learn how to write

Visit the University of Central Florida Writing Center htt= p://www.uwc.ucf.edu/ make an appointment and get advice.
Use the spell-checker. Spelling mistak= es, typos and creating new English words will significantly impact your gr= ade, downward.

Detailed Source for Fi= nancial and Economic Data:

CLICK on the Link=

Government and private agencies collecting and maintaining raw data ser= ies

Income, output, savings, investment, balance of payments, etc.	Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)	T= ables with National Incom= e and Product Accounts (NIPA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and compone= nts, associated international and regional data. For more usable formats for statistical work, see FRED and many of the Secondary Sources.=
Employment, prices, productivity	Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	E= mployment, labor force, unemployment, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), productivity, regional components, and much more. Specific series can be selected relatively easily for use. See also: Economy at a Glance (BLS)= in Secondary Source= s below.
Government budget, spending, revenue	Congressional Budget Office (CBO)	C= urrent Federal spending, revenue, budget, and projections as prepared by the Congress. Table format.
Office of Manage= ment and Budget (OMB)	C= urrent Federal spending, revenue, budget, and projections as prepared by the Whi= te House. Worksheet formats are downloadable. Selection of simple definitions and explanations of these data.
Money supply, interest rates	Federal Reserve Economic= Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed	M= onetary aggregates, interest rates, commercial bank data, exchange rates; plus collected employment, fiscal, price data; GDP, balance of payments; regio= nal data; and more. Data in download, usable formats. Daily and monthly data where available. Many series go back through the 1960s; a few go as far b= ack as the early 1900s. Hundreds of series.
Federal Reserve Relea= ses	D= aily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly current releases of interest rates and monetary aggregates in table format.
New York Fed's Stati= stics and Data	E= xchange rates, monetary aggregates, interest rates, and more.
Historical Data	<= span class=3DSpellE>NBER's Macro-Historical Database =	P= re-WWI and Interwar data from the U.S. plus some from the U.K., France, and Germany. Income, employment, price data, money supplies, interest rates, stocks, savings, investment, government budget and finance, foreign trade, and more. Each series in AS= CII format, usable in statistical packages. See also the NBER's business cycle reference dates in table format.
<= i>Statistical Abstract of the United States	C= ensus Bureau book in full, in pdf files. Population, state, local, federal government data, historical data, charts, and more. Table format.
Population	Census Bureau	R= egional census data in table format; charts, maps. Promises of more to come.
Consumer Surveys	Surveys of Consumers, U. of Michigan	S= urvey of consumer expectations. Monthly and quarterly data, selectable table forma= ts.

Secondary Sources

Numbers Now! Overviews, charts, summary tables, frequently-watched new data releases delivering the most recent data.	Economic Statistics Briefing Room (ESBR)	A few of the most widely used series, with charts, prepared by the White Hous= e as the data are released.
Economy at a Glance (BL= S)	Charts and tables for recent labor force, employment, price series (CPI and PP= I), etc. prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Also: Regional economies by state, and statistics by industry. Nicely organized table option allows you t= o create custom historical tables.
Econ = Data & Links	Clear, thorough site with many current U.S. and international ec= onomic facts, plus direct links to the pages where the data came from. Facts broken out into M1, M2, specific price series and deflators, nominal and real GDP, etc. Maintained by John A. Shaw.
Economic Indicators: Tables and weighted averages focussing= on assessing current economic conditions. <= o:p>	Economic Indicators (CEA)	Tables and charts of Economic Indicators as prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).
The Conference Board (TCB) <= o:p>	Computation of indexes of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and Business Cycle Indicators (BCI) plus various consumer surveys. NBER's= business cycle reference dates in table format. <= o:p>
Selectable Large Data Bases: Collections allowing the user to select individual macroeconomic and regional data series	Federal Reserve Econom= ic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed	Hundreds of series in usable formats, from money supply to interest rates to national income to prices. Data series and endpoints can be chosen by t= he user.
NBER's Macro-Historical Database <= o:p>	Pre-WWI and Interwar data from the U.S. plus some from the U.K., France, and Germany. Many series, each in ASCII format, usable in statistical packages. <= o:p>
Economagic	Extensive coverage: 100,000 collected data series, including some data for Canada and Japan. Data available in = time series format.
Regional Economic Information System (REIS, U. of Virginia) <= o:p>	Regional, State, County, and City Data drawn from Census Bureau publications. Sel= ect the region, state, county/city, and your choice of variables and years. Easier to use than the Census Bureau's County and City = Data Book and State and Metropolitan Area Data Book, which are in table format.
Tabular Large Data Bases: Collections summarizing data in table formats. <= o:p>	*Economic Report of the Pre= sident (ERP)*	Summaries and tables of the widely used Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) annual reports, summarizing annual data since the 19= 50s or earlier, as available. ASCII files, table format, at the ends of each volume. For the complete texts in pdf and A= SCII files, 1996-present, see also the Government Printi= ng Office, or *ERP, CEA site*. For text of still earlier editions, check out gopher: ERP= ,* 1992-94 .*
Statistical Abstract of the United States	Census Bureau book in full, in pdf files. Populati= on, state, local, federal government data, historical data, charts, and mor= e. Table format. See also primary sources.
<= b>EconData (U. of Maryland)	Extensive collection of the most widely-used data sets produced by many agencies.= In downloadable format.
EconStats	Extensive, well-organized collection of the most widely-used data sets produced by many agencies, U= .S. and non-U.S. Some series in downloadable spreadsheet format. <= o:p>
Economic Information Systems<= /a> <= o:p>	Table formats for many data series from many primary sources: NIPA, Flow of Funds, BEA, BLS, etc., plus analyses.
U.S. S= tate Department Country Notes	Background facts by country. Online quick reference with national facts, populatio= n, history synopsis, GDP, etc.
CIA= World Factbook	Background facts and maps by country. Online reference with national facts, population, history synopsis, GDP, etc.
Fee-based Large Data Base Collections	Haver= Analytics	Fee-based. Broad coverage, many series.
Stat-USA (Dept. of Commerce) <= o:p>	Fee-based. Current government releases and longer data series. <= o:p>