% This is the posterior odds program for the
% Technology Bayesian VAR paper
% Program to compute the posterior odds
% using the var-cov of the posteriors residuals
% O. Mikhail - December 2005

diffcov = [  0.000088297     0.000000236
             0.000000236     0.000054114];
encov   = [  0.000093233     0.000000281
             0.000000281     0.000068937];
enccov  = [  0.000093517     0.000000236
             0.000000236     0.000068920];
mincov  = [  0.000093273     0.000000234
             0.000000234     0.000069065];
ndcov   = [  0.000093211     0.000000134
             0.000000134     0.000069834];
nwcov   = [  0.000088507     0.000000449
             0.000000449     0.000054642];
 
diff = log(det(inv(diffcov)));
en   = log(det(inv(encov)));
enc  = log(det(inv(enccov)));
min  = log(det(inv(mincov)));
nd   = log(det(inv(ndcov)));
nw   = log(det(inv(nwcov)));

% the posterior odds
p_diff = diff / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)
p_en   = en   / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)
p_enc  = enc  / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)
p_min  = min  / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)
p_nd   = nd   / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)
p_nw   = nw   / (diff+en+enc+min+nd+nw)